ThinkingSkull.com

It is just after twelve noon, Eastern Standard Time. Ernesto made landfall hours ago and proceeded to rip what little organization it had to shreds, becoming an ever-widening mass of heavy thunderstorms. Instead of a spending tonight in the dark watching the lights flicker in Jacksonville, Florida, we instead get to play one of our favorite games: re-learning how to drive a car just because water is falling from the sky.

Tropical Storm Ernesto is staying organized and is finally getting some of the energy it needs to intensify. It has done almost exactly as I predicted thus far, though not as far Easterly as I’d hoped. The best news is its speed; at 12 kts in a Northeasterly direction, the Florida Keys will see some rain but Miami will get a reminder of Hurricane Andrew. But if the storm can cross the gap across open water without significantly intensifying, Florida can breathe a sigh of relief even though The Sunshine State remains on full alert vs. Mother Nature.

Update: I do sometimes hate being right ALL the time, but Ernesto will be a powerful tropical storm over Florida for the next two days, followed by a quick exit to the East Coast south of St. Augustine and heading toward the Carolinas.

Briefly a hurricane, Tropical Storm Ernesto is SE of Cuba and about to dart across life-giving waters full of heat and energy, but also wind shear which could cause Ernesto to turn. As of the last update, Ernesto was holding steady at 1004 mb but slowing down to between 7 and 6 mph. Meteorologists are predicting a turn likely to take it over the first coast, but that seems unlikely since it will have to sustain the core of the storm over a large portion of land to threaten the Florida Keys and re-intensify.

My current prediction: with a current lack of power and too little ocean to gather back even a Category 1 intensity, Ernesto may stall, break up, or other wise turn farther faster and sooner. Instead of the Florida Keys, Miami and the East coast of Florida will probably see plenty of rain as Ernesto turns due North and up the coast. If it can find more energy as it passes well East of Jacksonville, Ernesto may become a threat to North Carolina but likely will only be an Tropical Depression.

From a relatively quiet year thus far (last year was the worst hurricane season in 150 years on record), finally a third named storm has appeared: Chris. What’s amazing about this storm is the quickness it’s building intensity ans the speed at which it is moving. Although Tropical Storm Chris is still east of Puerto Rico, it could strike anywhere from North Florida down to Cuba as early as the end of this weekend.

Update: As of Thursday morning, wind shear started tearing into Chris, slowing it down and breaking it up. Chris could possibly downgrade to a tropical depression again unless it can find some new energy to feed on.

Our local Garden Ridge store has already started building up their Halloween shop, everything but the costumes. Decorations, creepy crawly things, the works. Always fun to see what new junk the party stores have come up with!